Andrew Noymer, CVR member and a demographer and associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine, is predicting a COVID-related death toll on the high end of the range, but he emphasized the number of variables that could affect the final numbers. “It partly depends on us,” Noymer said. “It depends whether there’s a fall wave in the Northeast, and whether people get some religion when it comes to masking, and it depends on the effect of restarting K-12, all of which are things that nobody really knows the answer to.”

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As COVID surges again, experts forecast hundreds of thousands more US deaths